The Telegraph | May 22 2024

Covid-19 was not a once in a lifetime risk. Western allies need more than a global treaty to protect themselves from the next crisis warns Rasmus Bech Hansen

Rasmus Bech Hansen is founder and CEO of Airfinity.

People have been quick to forget how bad the pandemic was, but it’s important to remember the scale of the crisis. It’s estimated that 25 million people worldwide lost their lives.

We have had very few global events in human history that come anywhere near that. It really puts it in perspective if you look at the economic damage, it goes toward $15 trillion and we’re still suffering from the hit. It puts the pandemic about midway between the two world wars in terms of its human and economic impact.

Economic cost of Covid (in USD billions)

Now the emergency has passed, policy makers are keen to move on. I hear time and again that we now have 100 years until the next pandemic because before Covid it was the Spanish flu which happened in 1918. But of course, it doesn’t work like that. 

With climate change, globalisation, a growing global population – and the increased capacity for man-made bioterror through the combination of synthetic biology and AI – the risk of a new pandemic has actually increased. Our risk modelling estimates there is a 27.5 per cent chance of a Covid like pandemic in the next 10 years. That is in line with other estimates and the assessments of the insurance industry.

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